Despite Dane Dunning's looming regression, I still like the Rangers at this price to continue their homefield magic. Texas averages 7.04 runs at home and is going for its 11th win in the last 13 games overall. St. Louis has lost four straight and has scored more than three runs just once in the past 11 games. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has never won on the road and owns a career 7.90 ERA away from Busch Stadium.

These teams are streaking in opposite directions. The Rangers have won four straight while the Cardinals have lost four straight. The Rangers have the best offense in MLB and it only improves against lefties. They are averaging 10.7 runs per game in their last three games. With Dane Dunning on the mound, the Rangers won't need 10 runs to win. Expect their offense to do enough for the Rangers to win their fifth straight game.

The Cardinals are due a breakout game to snap their skid, but we have to keep riding the red-hot Rangers. They are rolling without Jacob deGrom, which makes it all the more impressive (and who knows when he will be back). At some point, Rangers starter Dane Dunning (4-1, 2.06 ERA) figures to turn into a pumpkin but historically has been much better in Arlington. It's young lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.91) for the Cards. His lone road start this year was last time out, allowing four runs in Cleveland. That lineup isn't close to as good as the one he will see tonight. Marcus Semien enters on a 24-game hitting streak.

The fortunes of the Rangers and Cardinals have all but reversed from the preseason expectations. Texas looks like a World Series contender, and Dane Dunning has been one of the team's most impressive pitchers. The outright dysfunction that seemed to define the early season for St. Louis seems to have quieted down, but give me the Rangers here. They're winning outright in 63% of my model's simulations.